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                                                                                                                                                                          香港曾道人:工行北分:贵金属及商品市场交易策略

                                                                                                                                                                          2019-03-14 10:10 辽宁省新闻门户

                                                                                                                                                                            和讯特约

                                                                                                                                                                            一、贵金属市场

                                                                                                                                                                            黄金

                                                                                                                                                                            金价周三触及近两周高位,因美国经济数据不温不火,强化了美联储将对货币政策保持耐心的观点,而在关键投票前英国脱欧协议的不确定性也提振了金价的吸引力。现货金上涨0.5%,至每盎司1,308.83美元,为3月1日以来最高。今年2月,美国国内生产者物价指数同比上涨1.9%,创下2017年6月以来的最小年度涨幅。本周温和的通胀和令人失望的生产者物价指数,支持美联储维持利率不变的立场,打压美元,并提振对无息黄金的需求。全球最大的黄金上市交易基金SPDR Gold Trust GLD持金量周二上涨约0.4%,为连续第二天上涨,反映市场人气。从当前金价交易的逻辑来看,美元本月货币政策会议大概率将延续对加息保持耐心的措辞,此情况支撑金价上涨。但从限制金价涨幅方面来看,目前美联储暂停加息使得市场风险偏好增加,全球股市上涨,同时美债吸引力也增加,资金流入美股美债,间接为美元提供了支撑。目前美股再次回到阶段性高位,标普涨至2800以上,短期关注能否站稳2800的重要关口。

                                                                                                                                                                            白银

                                                                                                                                                                            周二,银价升0.1%,报每盎司15.46美元。银价依然受制于上方15.5附近的阻力,但预计在美联储下周货币政策会议前,还有继续上行的空间。银价上方阻力位为15.5、15.8、16.1附近。

                                                                                                                                                                            二、商品市场

                                                                                                                                                                            原油

                                                                                                                                                                            原油期货周三上涨约2%,因上周美国原油库存意外下降,且全球最大产油国--美国原油供应增长的官方预估被下调。委内瑞拉大规模停电导致该国原油出口陷入停顿,扶助收紧市场。美国对委内瑞拉的制裁已降低该国原油出口。布伦特原油期货收高0.88美元,或1.32%,报每桶67.55美元。美国原油期货收涨1.39美元,或2.44%,报每桶58.26美元。美国能源资料协会(EIA)表示,上周美国原油库存减少,因炼厂增产。EIA公布,上周美国原油库存减少390万桶,分析师预估为增加270万桶。委内瑞拉主要原油码头的出口陷入停滞,因该国发生历史上最严重的停电,导致全国大部分地区断电大约一周。昨日原油突破了原有的波动区间,短期关注上方60美元的整数阻力。

                                                                                                                                                                            铜

                                                                                                                                                                            周三,期铜收市未交易,但买盘报每吨6,472美元不变。铜价当前若想突破6540美元的重要阻力还需更多助力,短期应关注中美贸易谈判能否释放重大利好。

                                                                                                                                                                            大豆

                                                                                                                                                                            芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货周三连涨第二天,交易商报告称,因出现一轮温和的空头回补,但技术阻力限制涨幅。CBOT-5月大豆期货未能升穿10日移动均线,之前险些升穿这一关键技术阻力位,为3月6日以来首次。支撑位在20日波林格区间的低端附近。商品经纪和分析公司Allendale Inc进行的一项年度调查显示,2019年美国农户预计将种植8,426.3万英亩大豆。短期关注中美谈判后续的进展情况,目前双方在技术专利方面还存在分歧。

                                                                                                                                                                            北京分行交易室

                                                                                                                                                                            秦钢

                                                                                                                                                                            2019-03-14